A. Objectives

Spatial temporal databases are analyzed for patterns, rates, and trends in land use change. Population, socio-economic, and environmental conditions are correlated with land use change to assess land transformation causes and impacts. For selected study areas, research:

• Rates of change
• Temporal variability
• Causes and consequences

B. Science Issues

• What are the rates of land use change?
• How do rates of change vary by geographic area?
• How do rates of change vary over time and space?
• What are the factors (e.g., driving, enabling, shaping, constraining, and sustaining) that influence land use patterns and how do they change temporally?
• What are the regional consequences of land use change?

C. Methods

(1) Develop an understanding of the regional land use history.

• Timeline of historical events
• Narrative description of land use history

(2) Derive a quantitative description of the spatial temporal database.

• Degree of fragmentation
• Number of clusters
• Mean cluster size
• Number of edges
• Shape measure
• Mean X and Mean Y
• Standard distance
• Spatial autocorrelation index

(3) Derive Land Surface Characterization metrics for measuring rates of change:

• Average slope of urban land
• Urbanized area adjacent to waterways
• Natural resource consumption rates
• Urbanized area extent
• Number of dwelling units: Single Family & Multi-Family
• Number of commercial buildings
• Total population
• Percent population growth
• Per capita urban land consumption
• Population density
• Land prices
• Building permits
• LULC categorical summaries
• Annexation rates
• Total employment
• Employment density
• Housing unit density
• Percent urban land growth
• Infrastructure network extent
• Vehicle miles travelled
• Infrastructure network density
• Percent of landscape preserved as open space
• School enrollment rates

(4) Analyze for trends, statistical correlations, and relationships.

• Quantitative comparisons between different temporal periods
• Spatial land use patterns (corridors, hot spots, trends)
• Land use transition metrics
• Link landscape changes to historical events

(5) Assessment of causes and consequences of land use change

• Identify factors influencing land use change.
• Identify connections between land use change and changes in economic, social, and environmental conditions.
• Identify impacts of land use change on the region.

(6) National synthesis

• Comparative analysis between different study areas.

D. Products

Deliverables are a time-series land use change map, report describing the land use history of a region, and quantitative characterization of the historical and contemporary landforms.